Climate Change and Ireland: a research and commentary blog

This is Climate Change and Ireland, a personal blog by me, climate science and policy researcher Paul R Price. My posts here will mainly focus on how well Irish governance and sectors are doing relative to Ireland's declared commitments to climate action at national and EU level, and globally, as an individual Party to the Paris Agreement. I do not pretend to be an expert in individual sectors, or in economics or climate justice, instead I will aim to provide a relevant carbon budget and climate science perspective in occasional short posts on a range of topics. All views expressed are my own.

If you like what you see, you can subscribe to receive emails when new content is published.

A basis for the draft analyses and related commentary here is a core assumption that we in Ireland, through our Government's international and national commitments, mean what we say, including the climate equity and environmental justice considerations that follow from those commitments. (So, my visiting America under its thuggish new anti-science regime is not happening anytime soon, not that that was likely anyhow!)

Although greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – or, worse, economic or product "carbon footprint" efficiencies – are commonly used as key measures of progress for climate targets and carbon budgets, the EPA ultimately reports national emissions to the UNFCCC on the agreed basis of total emissions. That's the sum across all activities, from multiplying the annual amount of each activity by a related, evidenced emissions intensity (emissions per unit activity).

Therefore, my carbon budget research focuses on the amounts of emission drivers being used and the levels of societal or economic activities that use them most. In Ireland these encompass tangible inputs we can actually see, the fuels for energy (mostly in transport, heating and electricity generation), or the bags of fertiliser providing nutrients for agriculture (mostly here in farming that produces milk and livestock).

Ireland's key emission drivers are the quantities used of fossil carbon (in oil, gas, coal, peat and limestone for cement) and reactive nitrogen in fertilisers and animal feed. The point being, the key GHG emissions – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) – are "end-of-pipe" invisible gases, whereas the inputs are apparent to all of us: litres of diesel or tonnes of fertiliser, each with well-defined amounts of carbon and nitrogen. As needs frequent repetition: the atmosphere does not "care" how efficient we are or how profitable, it simply responds to the total quantities of the different GHGs emitted over time.

In Ireland we are fortunate to have governance that remains committed to climate action. That includes our expert advisory agencies – particularly the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC), the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI), Teagasc for agriculture, and others – that are enjoined to provide reporting and a basis for climate action policies and measures to mitigate emissions. Clear guidance from these advisory bodies is critically important to enabling effective climate action.

However, it is all too evident that Irish climate action is not happening anywhere near fast enough, nor, despite frequent sectoral claims of progress due to policy and measures, is it sufficiently clear whether individual policies or measures can be in fact be related to particular outcomes. If my analysis or commentary here is sometimes critical of governance, agencies or sectors then that is because we do need to assess climate action effectiveness so that it can be more effective in future. Also, government and agencies are frequently under pressure from vested interests interested in maintaining business-as-usual through presenting evidence that suits them, often to avoid regulation. Thus it is important to present quantitative evidence relevant to achieving effective climate mitigation where it omitted or if it has not been appropriately considered.

To meet Ireland's five-year carbon budgets and component sectoral emissions ceilings should be a basis for evidence-based policy: starting from quantity limits on carbon and nitrogen to deliver emission reductions aligned with those limits without fail. The point of carbon budgets is that can then guide policy because they can be translated into limits on the total fossil carbon and reactive nitrogen usage adding up within each five-year period, thereby providing a basis to limit GHG-intensive activities.

Instead, however, emissions-intensive activities are not being planned or regulated in this way at all: economics rules and activities and their emissions follow, while proposed efficiency measures frequently fail to deliver total emission reductions.

More than anything, this blog is written toward encouraging wider public and expert understanding of climate change and climate action implications. Hope lies in action: the most serious climate impacts for Ireland can be limited if climate commitments can be achieved equitably (both in terms of global climate justice and national just transition) and if in so doing we can press others internationally to do likewise.

There is no sugar-coating the fact that radical system change in Irish energy-use and agriculture is now urgently required. But, even if investment in cutting Ireland's use of carbon and nitrogen is initially costly, it will pay off in future benefits in resilience and through greatly decreased dependency on fossil fuels and fertilisers. Much climate mitigation can be directly related to inherently valuable public good benefits in health, ecological well-being, and in improved future food and energy security.

Sometimes paid, mostly not, I've been researching and acting on climate for the last fourteen years – far less than many others! Most of all, it is good to be able to look back and say that one has at least tried – alongside some wonderful people in academia, NGOs and media – to look at evidence and to face up to reality. And, no matter how inadequate, we can see that there has been some effect from those efforts; the situation would likely have been worse without that combined effort.

Facing climate reality may be daunting but better understanding can inoculate us and society against the rampant misinformation and disinformation that confuses or enables bad actors to mislead us to their benefit. Facing facts fully and fairly may be difficult sometimes, but I've found its far better for us to act together (and laugh and cry together about it all too) toward ensuring the best possible future for all of us and the delicate biosphere we are so fortunate to inhabit.

So, this blog will be more of the same from me. Posts will focus on equitable climate action within Paris-aligned carbon budgets. Constructive feedback and evidenced corrections are welcome!